CV is the right first statistical axis, not PB improvement

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Sprint literature (Stewart & Hopkins 2000) puts typical between-competition variation at 1.4%. Before chasing PB trajectories, a coach should know who is repeatable (low CV) and who is hot/cold (high CV). A swimmer whose CV isn't shifting across the season is in a flat periodisation state — taper should tighten it, build phases should widen it.

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